Lyra Symposium Attendees Look to Prosper in the Recovering Economy
From January 24 to 26, Lyra Research hosted its annual desert shindig at the Rancho Las Palmas Resort and Spa in Rancho Mirage, CA. Celebrating its 14th year, the 2011 Lyra Imaging Symposium was entitled "Navigating the Road to Profitability." A range of topics related to the digital imaging industry's recovery after the devastating effects of the Great Recession were explored. In general, it was an upbeat event, although there were plenty of signs that the industry has yet to get back to where it was before the economy tanked.
I'll post two blogs covering Lyra's recent symposium. In this first posting, I'll detail the event itself and some of the general trends Lyra's analysts identified for attendees during the day and a half of sessions. In the second blog, I'll focus more specifically on managed print services and what speakers shared concerning MPS.
"Attendee and sponsor numbers have bounced back, with the industry's recovery," says Frank Stefansson, Lyra's CEO and executive vice president. Rising from 148 in 2010 to 155, the number of registered attendees was up modestly this year. According to Mr. Stefansson, there were a number of first-time attendees who represented companies new to the symposium. The number of exhibitors was up by more than a third, growing from eight in 2010 to 13 this year.
Mr. Stefansson said a new networking roundtable preshow event was added to the event this year, which was both well received and well attended. Participants—seated at round tables—discussed various topics including MPS and mobile and cloud printing. Each table was dedicated to a different topic. "We also had a great lineup of featured speakers and panelists," said Mr. Stefansson. The agenda featured nine Lyra analysts along with 24 industry speakers and panelists who represented companies from across the industry including HP, Xerox, Mohawk Fine Papers, Lucidiom, Toshiba America Business Solutions, United Stationers, EFI, and InfoPrint Solutions. As usual, the various symposium presentations addressed a number of segments ranging from the production space to the office to consumer markets.
One of the opening talks, presented jointly by Lyra president Charles LeCompte and Ann Preide, vice president of publications, indicated that the overall hardcopy industry has been improving in terms of revenue for the past year and a half. By comparing the total quarter-to-quarter results of 11 companies reporting hardcopy revenue, it was revealed that the industry as a whole has improved from the nadir reached in the second quarter of 2009. The recovery has been uneven, however, with revenue inconsistently rising and falling. By the third quarter of last year, which was the most recent quarter in the presentation, total revenue for the 11 firms was still down more than 20 percent from the high-water mark reached in Q4 07.
David Rocheleau, vice president of Lyra's consulting group, provided the firm's forecasts for office markets. Mr. Rocheleau's numbers reflect the good-news-bad-news dilemma that many in the printer, copier, and MFP space are now wrestling with. The good news is that after moderating from earlier declines, shipments of monochrome MFPs are now expected to be flat through 2014. The bad news is that shipments of color printers will also be flat. Several years ago, most industry watchers predicted that shipments of color printers would increase steadily, while unit shipments of monochrome copiers and MFPs declined. Now, shipments of both machines are expected to be flat. One bright spot in the copier and MFP space remains: color machines and their unit shipments are expected to grow into the foreseeable future.
The director of Lyra's Hard Copy Advisory Service, Larry Jamieson, painted a fairly rosy picture of the business inkjet market. With shipments of lower-end workgroup lasers largely stalled over the next three years, Mr. Jamieson forecasts that most of the growth at the low end of the office equipment market will come from workgroup inkjet all-in-ones and printers. For reasons that I've indicated in past blogs, I'm skeptical about inkjet machines popping up in offices in the near term. While hardware manufacturers have advanced their technology significantly in terms of lower operating costs, better print speeds, and more durable output, the channels selling into small- and medium-sized businesses continue to reject the technology. Of course, Mr. Jamieson's numbers indicate shipments, and not necessarily where or how the machines will be used. If his numbers are accurate, I'm betting all those business-class inkjets will end up in small, home offices rather than in SMB workgroups.
I missed the gaggle of Wall Street analysts that in the past closed Lyra's symposium. Shannon Cross of Cross Research and Citigroup's Richard Gardner were the only two analysts from The Street to grace this year's closing panel. They shared the stage with Mr. LeCompte and addressed questions asked by Mr. Stefansson and from attendees on the floor. The Wall Street Watch panel was engaging and informative, but I was struck by the low head count. In the past, the panel was stuffed with financial analysts, jockeying for the microphone and the chance to be heard. The low turnout rate is one more sign of the hardcopy industry's maturity. Wall Street is now paying more attention to markets for iPads and other gadgets instead of machines that put marks on paper. While the industry is mature, however, it's still worth well over $100 billion when you add up hardware, supplies, and services. I'm sure Ms. Cross and Mr. Gardner's clients are aware of this.
Overall, Lyra's 2011 symposium was a success and generally upbeat. People didn't appear shell-shocked like they were at last year's Lyra event and at so many other industry events held during and just after the recession. There was a resolve reflected of an industry determined to thrive in a market that has been changed forever. New opportunities are arising and firms in the hardcopy industry plan to fully leverage each that comes their way. One of the most promising opportunities discussed at Lyra's Symposium, of course, was MPS, which I'll discuss in my next blog.
Posted by Charlie Brewer on 02/17/2011